Biden vs. Trump: Does It Really Matter Who Wins?

So, just to show you that sometimes I’m as full of shit as the next occupant of the digital echo chamber when it comes to knowing anything about politics, I predicted last week that once Joe got into the campaign, the polls which were showing Trump in the lead would begin to move the other way.

Well according to RCP, it ain’t happened yet.

Joe delivered his State of the Union speech on March 8th, and with 9 polls published since that date, Trump is holding the same 2-point spread that he was holding before the SOTU speech. And since all these polls have a margin of error of between 2 and 3 points, we can say that basically the 2024 Presidential race is tied.

And in fact, if you deduct from the overall averages two polls — Rasmussen, Grinnell — which used respondent groupings that lean GOP, the contest is a wash for both sides.

What’s funny about these numbers is how much they diverge from the other data source which usually tells us about the health of any political campaign, namely, how much money a campaign has raised.

And here, Joe is way out in front of Trump, having raised twice as much in February as Trump raised, and not being saddled with all those humongous legal fees.