How Will New Hampshire End Up?

So, it now looks like Trump has Iowa wrapped up in his favor but the latest poll out of New Hampshire from St. Anselm’s College raises at least some doubt as to whether MAGA will carry Trump very far in the 2024 GOP primary race.

This poll shows Trump with a 14-point lead over Haley (44 to 30) with Christie, DeSantis and Ramaswamy dividing 23 points, which means that as of December 19, GOP voters in New Hampshire had all made up their minds.

The problem for Haley is that most of her gain from early October, when she was at 13 points, has come from taking votes away from candidates other than Trump, with his numbers staying fairly constant over the same period of time.

On the other hand, when you want to figure out the meaning of a poll, the devil’s always in the details, and the details of the St. Anselm poll may hold some interesting findings for both Haley and Trump.

To begin, it should be noted that the St. Anselm pollsters were very careful to keep a balance, ideologically speaking, in terms of whom they polled. 47% of the respondents said they were politically conservative, 43% claimed to be liberals. Women were 51%, men were 49%. On the other hand, while abortion was considered a major issue by 22% of the females but only 5% of the males, 55% of likely GOP primary voters who were female had a favorable…