Is There Really a New Hampshire Primary?

Every four years I conduct my own scientific-based analysis on the results of the election by going up to New Hampshire, driving around to a bunch of small towns and counting lawn signs. The last time I did my survey, which was for the 2020 vote, Joe’s lawn signs outnumbered Trump signs by roughly 7 percent, which was exactly the difference in the popular vote between those two guys.

This time I decided not to wait until November, but instead to conduct my survey ten days before the New Hampshire primary, because the media is saying that Haley is ‘closing the gap’ on Trump, with the latest CNN poll showing that he’s only 7 points ahead of her with nearly one-third of the GOP voters still considering someone else.

So, my wife and I got into the car and drove up Federal Highway 202, which snakes all the way through New Hampshire before crossing the border into Maine and we drove through Rindge, Jaffrey, then back down through Fitzwilliam, Richmond, Winchester — towns like that.

In every town we saw a couple of Trump lawn signs, or a flag attached to someone’s front porch and waving in the air. There may have also been a flag or two for Trump on the back of a truck sitting in someone’s driveway, but perhaps that truck was sitting in front of a house in Massachusetts which I noticed on the way home.