Will Early Voting Tilt This Election Red or Blue?

The eagle-eyed sister lawyer sent me what I have been trying to locate the last several weeks, which is an election poll that compares how respondents say they will vote next week with the way they voted four years ago.

The reason such data is so important is that if voter attitudes towards the two candidates haven’t changed, then what will ultimately determine the outcome of the 2024 election is the turnout for each candidate or for both.

What we seem to be learning so far is that turnout in states with early voting has exceeded numbers from previous elections, but it’s not quite clear whether these votes are more blue than red or the other way around.

On the other hand, what we do know from previous elections is that any talk by Republicans about putting together a ‘ground game’ to get out the vote is just a lot of talk. Maybe there are people from all over the United States who will come into New York for a weekend to stomp their feet for Trump at a Madison Square Garden event, but when they go back home they’ll be about as anxious to talk around and ring doorbells as I’m about ready to resume the 112th diet I have been on since I went to my internist 20 years ago and he told me to lose some weight.

The truth is that when the GOP trundles out a catchy little phrase like ‘election…